Prediction markets don’t trust election survey polls; Favor Trump over Harris
Prediction markets have become popular during this presidential election year in 2024, especially after implementing cryptocurrency payments via Circle’s USDC. Deemed more trusted than the legacy media survey polls, prediction markets have been the go-to place for US election insights. These platforms provide universal access with “skin in the game” rather than opinion surveys or simulations, leveraging financial incentives for accuracy. Interestingly, the prediction markets apparently do not trust the survey polls – which mostly favor a Kamala Harris victory – favoring a Donald Trump victory instead, although by a narrow margin. For that, on November 3, Finbold retrieved data from Polymarket and Kalshi, the two most popular prediction markets by financial volume. Picks for you AI predicts Solana price for year-end ...